Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth

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  • Collective Authors

Abstract

This study examines the application of structured forecasting methods to determine accurate
demand forecasts using 12 monthly sales figures of a moderate busy pharmacy. The date were analysed
using some forecasting techniques; Moving Average Method, Exponential Smoothing Method and
Least Square Method. Also, the performances of the forecasting methods were evaluated using some
accuracy measures such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to. The findings reveal that exponential smoothing method which
results to least forecast error is the best method. Hence, the pharmacy is advised to adopt this best
forecasting method to determine its monthly demand forecasts. Pharmacy operators should maintain
sound sales and inventory records; it is easier if the system can be computerized but it could be
expensive to operate for small pharmacy outlet.

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2021-07-01

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