Do Commercial Banks’ Non-Performing Loans Respond to Environmental Financial and Economic Influences in the Sub-Saharan Region of Africa
Keywords:
SYS-GMM, Monetary Policy, Market ImperfectionAbstract
Recent trends in the global economy amplify the need for financial reforms in fragile economies prevalent in the sub-Saharan region of Africa. The study aims at assessing the internal and external environmental influences on the non-performing loans of the banking sub-sector in the region. Extant studies focus primarily on either macroeconomic determinants or bank-related determinants. This work draws its pool of regressors from a wider scope and confirms its results by using multiple estimation techniques. Annual data for the period 2012 to 2021 were sourced from secondary databases for variables representing bank operations, bank quality, monetary policy, and macroeconomic conditions. Three estimation techniques- Dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), System GMM (SYS-GMM), and System Seemingly Unsure Regression (SYS-SUR)-were employed to analyze the data. The results confirm that bank quality, monetary policy and bank operations are significant determinants of non-performing loans in the region. The findings imply that the often favored policy of restricting money supply increases the incidence of non-performing loans in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study exposes the superior nature of interest rates or required reserve ratio over money supply as a monetary policy tool because of their neutral impact on non-performing loans.
References
Adusei, C., & Bannerman, J. (2022). A Retrospective Study of Non-Performing Loans of the Ghana Banking Sector between 1998 and 2019. Theoretical Economics Letters, 12, 498-517.
Albanesi, Stefania; De Giorgi, Giacomo; Nosal, Jaromir (August 2017). "Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative" (PDF). NBER Working Paper No. 23740. doi:10.3386/w23740. S2CID 46994840
Alhassan, A. L., Kyereboah-Coleman, A. & Andoh, C. (2014). Asset quality in a crisis period: An empirical examination of Ghanaian banks. Review of Development Finance 4 (2014) 50–62
Anita, S. S., Tasnova, N., & Nawar, N. (2022). Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries. Future Business Journal, 8(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-022-00117-9
Baidoo, T, Yusif, H. & Ayesu, Enock Kojo (2020). Improving loan repayment in Ghana: Does financial literacy matter? Cogent Economics & Finance (2020), 8: 1787693.
Baudino, P.,Jacopo, O., Zamil, R. (2018). The identification and measurement of nonperforming assets: a crosscountry comparison FSI Insights on policy implementation: Bank of International Settlement. No 7.
Bun, M.J.G, & Kiviet, J.F. (2006). The effects of dynamic feedbacks on LS and MM estimator accuracy in panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 132, 409-444.
Central Bank of Kenya (2013) Revised Prudential Guidelines
Central Bank of Nigeria (2010) Revised Prudential Guidelines
Chege, L. K. Omagwa, J & Abdul, f. (2019). Bank Specific Characteristics, Prudential Regulations and Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks Listed At Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance. 10(5): 66-79
Chen, J. (2022). A Technical Note on the Arrow Debreu Model
Emmanuel, B., Musa, B.B., & Polycarp, S.U. (2022). Central Bank of Nigeria prudential guidelines and the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria. Accounting and Taxation Review, 6(2): 47-.71
Fofack, Hippolyte. 2005. “Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Analysis and Macroeconomic Implications.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS3769, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Fry, M. J. (1995). Money, Interest and Banking in Economic development. America. The John Hopkins University Press
Gaur, D. & Mohapatra, B. P. (2020). The nexus among economic growth, priority sector lending and non-performing assets: a case of Indian banking sector. 10: 70-90
Gortsos, C. (2021) Non-performing Loans -New risks and policies? IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit- http://www.europarl.europa.eu/supporting-analyses
Greene, William H. (2012). Econometric Analysis. (Seventh ed.). Upper Saddle River: Pearson Prentice-Hall. pp. 332–344. ISBN 978-0-273-75356-8.
Hanifah, N. (2015). Economic determinants of non-performing loans in Ugandan Commercial Banks. Taylor’s Business Review 5(2): 137-153.
Hayashi, F. (2000). Econometrics. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-01018-2.
Hossain, S. (2011) Portfolio Optimization with Asian Hedge Funds: A Comparison between the Mean - Variance and the Polynomial Goal Progamming Methods, SSRN Electronic Journal.
IMF (2021). Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis. DP/2021/014
Judson, R.A., & Owen, A.L. (1997). Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists. Social Science Research Network, 1997, 1-22.
Karayalcin, C., McCollister, K., & Mitra, D. (2002). Infrastructure, Returns to Scale, and Sovereign Debt. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 11 (3): 267-278.
Kennedy, S. E. (1973). The Banking Crisis of 1933. Lexington Kentucky: University Press of Kentucky.
Kiviet, J.F. (2009). Strength and weakness of instruments in IV and GMM estimation of dynamic panel data models.
Koju, L., Koju, R., & Wang, S. (2018). Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from the Nepalese Banking System. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 7, 111-138. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0026
Kurti, L. (2016). Determinants of non-performing Loans in Albania. The Macrotheme Review, 5(1): 60-72
Labra, R. & Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic Panel data. A practical approach to perform long panels. Rev.Colomb.Estad. [online]. 41(1): 31-52.
Lown, C., and D. Morgan. 2001. “The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Survey of Senior Loan Officers.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Working Paper.
Mahrous, S. N., Samak, N. & Abdelsalam, M.A.M. (2020). The effect of Monetary Policy on credit Risk. Evidence from the MENA region Countries. retrieved from https:// wwwemerald.com/insight/2631-956
Mehrabani, A. & Ullah, A. ( 2020). "Improved Average Estimation in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Working Papers 202013, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2020
Messai, A. S. & Juini, F. (2013). Micro and Macro determinants of non-performing loans. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues. 3(4): 852-860
Mitnick,B.M. (1973). Fiduciary rationality and Public Policy. The theory of agency and some consequences. Paper presented at the 1973 annual meeting of America
Morris, F. (1985). India’s Financial System: An overview of its principal structural features. Washington D. C., World Bank, Staff working Paper No. 739
Ogbebor, T. O. & Ighodaro, C. A. (2017).Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-performing Loans of Deposit Money Banks in Selected African Countries. Nigerian Journal of Social Sciences. 13(2).
Rodoni, A., & Yaman, B. (2018). Asymetric Information and Non-Performing Financing: Study inThe Indonesian Islamic Banking Industry. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah (Journal of IslamicEconomics). Vol. 10 (2): 403 – 416.
Ross, A. (1973). The economic theory of Agency: The principal’s problem. Americaneconomic Review. 62(2): 134-139
Sato, Y & Soderbom, M. (2013). System GMM estimation of panel data models with time varying slope coefficient University of Gotherburg, School of Business, Economics and Law Working papers in Economics no 577
Skarika, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in central and eastern European countries. finance theory and practice. 38(1): 37-59
Stiglitz, J. E. (1973). Approaches to the Economics of Discrimination. American Economic Review, 62(2), p. 287-295.
Stiglitz, J. E.(1982). Information and Capital Markets, in Financial Economics: Essays in Honor of Paul Cootner, William F. Sharpe and Cathryn Cootner (eds.), Prentice Hall: New Jersey, p. 118-158.
Stiglitz, J. E. (2008). Vanity Fair capitalist fools vanityfair.com
Stiglitz, J. E. & Weiss, A.(1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with imperfect information.. American Economic Review, 73(5):912–927
Stiglitz, J. E. & Weiss, A.(1983). Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets. American Economic Review, 73(5):912–927.
Tseng, W. and Corker, R. (1991). Financial Liberalization, Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Asian Countries. Washington D. C., International Monetary Fund, Occasional Paper No. 84
Uddin, G. (2020). Prudential guidelines and financial system stability in Nigeria. MPRA Paper No. 104964, Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/104964/
Virmani, A. (1985). Government Policy and the Development of Financial Markets. The case of Korea. Washington D. C., World Bank, Staff working Paper No. 747
Wairim, M. M. & Gitundu, E. W. (2017). Macroeconomic Dterminants of non-performing Loans in Kenya. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting. 8(4): 97-105
Zellner, Arnold (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regression equations and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 57 (298): 348–368.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Georgina Asemota, Dr. Erhi, Dr. Ihensekhien
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The author fully assumes the content originality and the holograph signature makes him responsible in case of trial.
