An Equilibrium Model with Applications for Some of the Asian and Australia-Oceania Countries - Part One

Cătălin Angelo Ioan¹, Gina Ioan²

Abstract: The model presented in this article is an adaptation of the IS-LM model for an open economy in which we took into account the temporal variable to more accurately determine the equilibrium levels of the macroeconomic indicators. We analyzed the periods during which the values of the indicators exceeded the level of equilibrium and we identified the possible causes that led to these situations.

Keywords: equilibrium; GDP; investments; interest rate; consumption

JEL Classification: E17; E27

1. The Model Equations ([1])

The first equation of the model is the formula of the aggregate demand:

1. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

where:

• D(t) – the aggregate demand at the moment t;

• C(t) – the actual final consumption of households at the moment t;

• G(t) – the actual final consumption of the government at the moment t;

• I(t) – the investment at the moment t;

• EX(t) – the exports at the moment t;

• IM(t) – the imports at the moment t

A second equation relates the actual final consumption of households according to disposable income:

2. C(t)=c_VDI(t)+C₀, C₀R, c_V0

where:

• DI(t) – the disposable income at the moment t;

• c_V – the marginal propensity to consume, c_V= 0;

• C₀ – the intrinsic achieved autonomous consumption of households

3. G(t)=i_GTI(t)+G₀, i_G(0,1)

where:

• TI(t) – the total income at the moment t;

• i_G – the marginal index of final consumption of the government according to total income

• G₀ - the intrinsic achieved autonomous consumption of government

4. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

where:

• TR(t) – tax rate at the moment t;

• OR(t) – other revenues at the moment t

5. OR(t)=i_ORY(t)+OR₀, i_OR(0,1), OR₀R

where:

• Y(t) – the output at the moment t;

• i_OR – the marginal index of other revenues according to the output;

• OR₀ – the autonomous other revenues

6. I(t)=i_YY(t)+i_rr(t)+I₀, i_Y(0,1), i_r0

where:

• I(t) – investments at the moment t;

• r(t) – the real interest rate at the moment t;

• i_Y – the rate of investments;

• i_r – a factor of influence on the investment rate

• I₀ - the autonomous investments

7. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

8. TF(t)=c_TFY(t)+TF₀, c_TF(0,1), TF₀R

where:

• TF(t) – the government transfers at the moment t;

• c_TF – the marginal index of government transfers according to the output;

• TF₀ – the autonomous government transfers

9. TR(t)=t_YY(t)+TR₀, t_Y(0,1), TR₀R

where:

• t_Y – the marginal index of tax rate according to the output;

• TR₀ – the intercept of the regression

10. IM(t)=im_YY(t)+IM₀, im_Y0, IM₀R

where:

• CH(t) – the exchange rate of the national currency based on the euro at the moment t;

• im_Y – the rate of imports;

• IM₀ – the autonomous imports

11. EX(t)=ex_YY(t)+EX₀, ex_Y0, EX₀R

where:

• ex_Y – the rate of exports;

• EX₀ – the autonomous exports

12. D(t)=Y(t) – the equation of equilibrium at the moment t

13. MD(t)=md_YY(t)+md_rr(t)+MD₀, md_Y(0,1), md_r0

where:

• MD(t) – the money demand in the economy at the moment t;

• md_Y – the rate of money demand in the economy;

• md_r – a factor of influencing the demand for currency from the interest rate

• MD₀ - the autonomous money demand

14. MS(t)=m_St+MS₀, m_M,M₀R

where:

• MS(t) – the money supply in the economy at the moment t;

• m_S – the marginal index of the money supply according to time;

• MS₀ – the intercept of the regression

15. MD(t)=MS(t) – the equation of equilibrium at the moment t

2. The Equilibrium at a Fixed Moment ([1])

From (4), (5), (11) we get:

16. TI(t)=(t_Y+i_OR)Y(t)+TR₀+OR₀

From (3), (16):

17. G(t)=(i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR)Y(t)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+G₀

From (7), (8), (9) we get:

18. DI(t)=(1+c_TF-t_Y)Y(t)+TF₀-TR₀

From (2), (18):

19. C(t)=(c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y)Y(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+C₀

Now, from (1), (6), (10), (11), (17), (19) we have:

20. D(t)=(c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y)Y(t)+i_rr(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+ I₀+EX₀-IM₀

From (12) and (20) we get the first equation of the equilibrium:

21. (c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y-1)Y(t)+i_rr(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+ I₀+EX₀-IM₀=0

and from (13), (14), (15) we get the second equation of the equilibrium

22. md_YY(t)+md_rr(t)-m_St+MD₀-MS₀=0

Let note now:

23. =c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y-1

24. =c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+I₀+EX₀-IM₀

25. =MD₀-MS₀

The equilibrium equations become:

The solutions of equilibrium are:

At equilibrium, replacing (27) in (1)-(16), we have:

28. TI^*(t)=(t_Y+i_OR)Y^*(t)+TR₀+OR₀=

29. G^*(t)=

30. DI^*(t)=

31. C^*(t)=

32. OR^*(t)=

33. TR^*(t)=

34. TF^*(t)=

35. I^*(t)=

36. IM^*(t)=

37. EX^*(t)=

38. MD^*(t)=

39. MS^*(t)=m_St+MS₀

3. Analysis of the Countries

3.1. Afghanistan

After the analysis during 2002-2016 the model equations are:

40. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

41. C(t)=1.0748DI(t)-492806926

42. G(t)=1.8158TI(t)-576163364

43. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

44. OR(t)=0.0273Y(t)-93080272

45. I(t)=0.3447Y(t)+1838840r(t)-2403484225

46. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

47. TF(t)=0.1104Y(t)-698654042

48. TR(t)=0.0857Y(t)-178851965

49. IM(t)=0.5074Y(t)+414651459

50. EX(t)=-0.1144Y(t)+3987610671

51. D(t)=Y(t)

52. MD(t)=0.4111Y(t)+5663634r(t)-1773123228

53. MS(t)=411040302t-821378571504

54. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

55. Y(t)=1283813128.95t-2569053265936.47

56. r(t)=-20.6029t+41746.4349

57. TI(t)=145117695.46t-290668627095.69

58. G(t)=263498073.55t-528358960893.03

59. DI(t)=1315480409.57t-2632942828665.53

60. C(t)=1413929116.07t-2830481379387.97

61. OR(t)=35043998.65t-70220030330.63

62. TR(t)=110073696.81t-220448596765.06

63. TF(t)=141740977.43t-284338159494.12

64. I(t)=404689862.68t-811281077285.17

65. IM(t)=651451628.55t-1303212719357.82

66. EX(t)=-146852294.79t+297855432271.89

67. MD(t)=MS(t)=411040301.76t-821378571504.21

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2002 (4656.22%) and the minimum in 2008 (113.50%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 47.76-78.49%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2006 (451.23%) and the minimum in 2015 (119.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 7.43-15.95%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2006 (260.26%) and the minimum in 2014 (101.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 1.36-2.26%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2012 (152.18%) and the minimum in 2015 (110.52%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.75-23.95%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2007 (474.37%) and the minimum in 2006 (-13251.58%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 3.21-7.08%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2006 (197.46%) and the minimum in 2015 (117.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 4.17-7.51%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2014 (107.00%) and the minimum in 2008 (84.21%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (109.25%) and the minimum in 2011 (52.70%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2002 (581.66%) and the minimum in 2008 (69.54%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.67-47.58%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2006 (672.31%) and the minimum in 2005 (-1111.27%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2002 (1064.73%) and the minimum in 2010 (187.66%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2008 (3.81%) and the minimum in 2006 (1.48%).

Figure 3.1.1.

Figure 3.1.2.

Figure 3.1.3.

Figure 3.1.4.

Figure 3.1.5.

Figure 3.1.6.

Figure 3.1.7.

Figure 3.1.8.

Figure 3.1.9.

Figure 3.1.10.

Figure 3.1.11.

Figure 3.1.12.

Figure 3.1.13.

3.2. Armenia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

68. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

69. C(t)=0.5817DI(t)+1463247125

70. G(t)=0.1055TI(t)+863076556

71. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

72. OR(t)=-0.0145Y(t)+550074807

73. I(t)=0.1861Y(t)-69949429r(t)+1911374551

74. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

75. TF(t)=0.2822Y(t)-1021125219

76. TR(t)=0.2069Y(t)-482220841

77. IM(t)=0.2318Y(t)+1476598789

78. EX(t)=0.2156Y(t)+146860092

79. D(t)=Y(t)

80. MD(t)=0.5075Y(t)+82713892r(t)-3859131667

81. MS(t)=196334736t-392443864996

82. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

83. Y(t)=678411999.69t-1353339797802.37

84. r(t)=-1.7887t+3605.3649

85. TI(t)=130518962.17t-260299748539.86

86. G(t)=13767098.58t-26593258055.86

87. DI(t)=729461051.49t-1455714627060.62

88. C(t)=424312756.56t-845296542052.49

89. OR(t)=-9869665.20t+20238716386.68

90. TR(t)=140388627.37t-280538464926.54

91. TF(t)=191437679.17t-382913294184.79

92. I(t)=251345690.62t-502090787555.53

93. IM(t)=157274830.42t-312265326907.00

94. EX(t)=146261284.35t-291624537045.48

95. MD(t)=MS(t)=196334735.99t-392443864995.80

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (123.78%) and the minimum in 2016 (77.74%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 73.26-95.59%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (117.14%) and the minimum in 2004 (67.52%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 11.88-16.79%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2012 (139.31%) and the minimum in 2004 (61.53%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 5.03-8.78%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (171.53%) and the minimum in 2016 (50.07%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.64-42.44%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2008 (165.15%) and the minimum in 2000 (-317.39%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.07-25.87%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (134.24%) and the minimum in 2011 (93.63%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.86-27.15%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (240.37%) and the minimum in 2010 (68.24%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2003 (145.14%) and the minimum in 2009 (67.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.59-31.83%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (132.80%) and the minimum in 2015 (71.49%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 42.25-54.58%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2008 (201.02%) and the minimum in 2016 (6.34%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (123.72%) and the minimum in 2016 (80.22%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2015 (1375.03%) and the minimum in 2016 (-2737.82%).

Figure 3.2.1

Figure 3.2.2.

Figure 3.2.3.

Figure 3.2.4.

Figure 3.2.5.

Figure 3.2.6.

Figure 3.2.7.

Figure 3.2.8.

Figure 3.2.9.

Figure 3.2.10.

Figure 3.2.11.

Figure 3.2.12.

Figure 3.2.13.

3.3. Australia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

96. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

97. C(t)=0.5570DI(t)+16625510251

98. G(t)=0.9429TI(t)-68758737577

99. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

100. OR(t)=0.0257Y(t)-1581204353

101. I(t)=0.4178Y(t)-2579298141r(t)-156989354523

102. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

103. TF(t)=0.1435Y(t)+58884314908

104. TR(t)=0.1641Y(t)+70113595293

105. IM(t)=0.4080Y(t)-235483208500

106. EX(t)=0.2299Y(t)-33869145253

107. D(t)=Y(t)

108. MD(t)=2.0706Y(t)-1773149857r(t)-1257165675421

109. MS(t)=64719242816t-128969961498168

110. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

111. Y(t)=30890560082.75t-60940760763902.60

112. r(t)=-0.4279t+863.9320

113. TI(t)=5863552205.65t-11499057553491.10

114. G(t)=5528488239.93t-10910719757988.50

115. DI(t)=30254502391.19t-59697178234172.30

116. C(t)=16852635631.93t-33236434812018.10

117. OR(t)=794262453.49t-1568498671443.41

118. TR(t)=5069289752.16t-9930558882047.69

119. TF(t)=4433232060.61t-8686976352317.41

120. I(t)=14009652122.94t-27846021963178.90

121. IM(t)=12602325885.37t-25097296163384.60

122. EX(t)=7102109973.31t-14044880394101.60

123. MD(t)=MS(t)=64719242815.68t-128969961498168.00

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (103.21%) and the minimum in 2002 (98.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.24-56.62%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2012 (106.03%) and the minimum in 2003 (94.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.72-18.59%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2000 (121.15%) and the minimum in 2005 (92.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 2.47-2.86%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (109.02%) and the minimum in 2016 (86.10%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.30-30.37%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2016 (109.12%) and the minimum in 2011 (83.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.46-22.20%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (107.28%) and the minimum in 2011 (90.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.10-24.83%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (117.22%) and the minimum in 2006 (91.25%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (109.91%) and the minimum in 2011 (94.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.63-22.34%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2012 (110.83%) and the minimum in 2002 (88.56%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.80-23.64%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2011 (386.94%) and the minimum in 2009 (-317.53%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (101.19%) and the minimum in 2003 (99.05%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2016 (477.37%) and the minimum in 2009 (24.73%).

Figure 3.3.1.

Figure 3.3.2.

Figure 3.3.3.

Figure 3.3.4.

Figure 3.3.5.

Figure 3.3.6.

Figure 3.3.7.

Figure 3.3.8

Figure 3.3.9.

Figure 3.3.10.

Figure 3.3.11.

Figure 3.3.12.

Figure 3.3.13.

3.4. Azerbaijan

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

124. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

125. C(t)=0.4297DI(t)+2427857742

126. G(t)=-0.0649TI(t)+7456542350

127. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

128. OR(t)=-0.1594Y(t)+23771461962

129. I(t)=0.2892Y(t)+40431991r(t)-563882308

130. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

131. TF(t)=-0.2840Y(t)+4896655332

132. TR(t)=0.1180Y(t)+1099574075

133. IM(t)=0.4549Y(t)-4995651122

134. EX(t)=0.9432Y(t)-13242142232

135. D(t)=Y(t)

136. MD(t)=0.3699Y(t)+79997794r(t)-5707566063

137. MS(t)=1413436740t-2828466045162

138. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

139. Y(t)=4769268694.25t-9517370341748.70

140. r(t)=-4.3817t+8716.9661

141. TI(t)=-197171942.85t+418339829969.17

142. G(t)=12803538.42t-19708732837.95

143. DI(t)=2852109836.47t-5687764310900.61

144. C(t)=1225658862.52t-2441818379365.72

145. OR(t)=-759992975.73t+1540384400103.14

146. TR(t)=562821032.89t-1122044570133.97

147. TF(t)=-1354337824.89t+2707561460714.12

148. I(t)=1202171872.40t-2400662880207.38

149. IM(t)=2169665496.57t-4334697199169.50

150. EX(t)=4498299917.47t-8989877548507.14

151. MD(t)=MS(t)=1413436740.32t-2828466045161.59

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2009 (114.95%) and the minimum in 2004 (63.99%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 43.56-47.17%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2009, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2011 (104.32%) and the minimum in 2008 (92.10%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 31.82-42.49%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2014 (153.66%) and the minimum in 2009 (99.66%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 26.34-115.34%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2014 (142.33%) and the minimum in 2001 (52.95%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 42.02-50.00%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2016 (251.04%) and the minimum in 2014 (-33.98%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (93.49%) and the minimum in 2011 (66.11%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2002 (156.13%) and the minimum in 2001 (-1098.56%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2013 (99.74%) and the minimum in 2004 (22.79%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2014 (109.96%) and the minimum in 2001 (39.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 61.37-65.94%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2013 (92.40%) and the minimum in 2004 (-3.30%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2009 (78.72%) and the minimum in 2004 (48.66%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2008 (7.68%) and the minimum in 2009 (-55.97%).

Figure 3.4.1.

Figure 3.4.2.

Figure 3.4.3.

Figure 3.4.4

Figure 3.4.5.

Figure 3.4.6.

Figure 3.4.7.

Figure 3.4.8.

Figure 3.4.9.

Figure 3.4.10.

Figure 3.4.11.

Figure 3.4.12.

Figure 3.4.13.

3.5. Bangladesh

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

152. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

153. C(t)=0.5850DI(t)+13399633911

154. G(t)=0.3724TI(t)+1748602319

155. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

156. OR(t)=0.0190Y(t)+1746348

157. I(t)=0.3723Y(t)+98763368r(t)-12560243229

158. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

159. TF(t)=0.1572Y(t)-2678216027

160. TR(t)=0.1088Y(t)-3212918580

161. IM(t)=0.3481Y(t)-13805342533

162. EX(t)=0.2849Y(t)-13595163994

163. D(t)=Y(t)

164. MD(t)=0.7559Y(t)-732079890r(t)-20008188589

165. MS(t)=4800146712t-9581534615351

166. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

167. Y(t)=8984244517.22t-17922499385707.50

168. r(t)=2.7200t-5445.5243

169. TI(t)=1148734841.63t-2294800571198.94

170. G(t)=427817433.22t-852892220384.06

171. DI(t)=9419018648.63t-18789287371004.50

172. C(t)=5510520651.58t-10979120919326.30

173. OR(t)=170898861.83t-340921159343.21

174. TR(t)=977835979.79t-1953879411855.73

175. TF(t)=1412610111.19t-2820667397152.76

176. I(t)=3613747390.58t-7223471607146.37

177. IM(t)=3127458348.99t-6252712824538.96

178. EX(t)=2559617390.85t-5119727463389.72

179. MD(t)=MS(t)=4800146712.45t-9581534615351.34

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (125.30%) and the minimum in 2014 (87.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 76.53-78.38%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2001 (112.73%) and the minimum in 2012 (83.35%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 5.33-6.20%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2002 (131.02%) and the minimum in 2015 (61.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 2.04-2.37%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (331.71%) and the minimum in 2010 (75.58%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.91-22.99%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2001 (114.94%) and the minimum in 2016 (35.74%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.74-17.36%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2001 (168.04%) and the minimum in 2009 (77.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.95-7.30%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2002 (118.73%) and the minimum in 2009 (88.40%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2001, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2001 (221.27%) and the minimum in 2000 (-805.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.49-16.62%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2000 (286.39%) and the minimum in 2003 (64.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.42-27.07%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (137.41%) and the minimum in 2002 (58.52%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (145.71%) and the minimum in 2011 (84.75%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2003 (218.49%) and the minimum in 2002 (-31188.48%).

Figure 3.5.1.

Figure 3.5.2.

Figure 3.5.3.

Figure 3.5.4.

Figure 3.5.5.

Figure 3.5.6.

Figure 3.5.7.

Figure 3.5.8.

Figure 3.5.9.

Figure 3.5.10.

Figure 3.5.11.

Figure 3.5.12.

Figure 3.5.13.

3.6. Bahrain

After the analysis during 2000-2015 the model equations are:

180. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

181. C(t)=0.7619DI(t)-7912124725

182. G(t)=-0.1331TI(t)+4126764726

183. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

184. OR(t)=0.0899Y(t)+2581214845

185. I(t)=0.2140Y(t)-42239956r(t)+1640650017

186. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

187. TF(t)=1.0614Y(t)-31605958044

188. TR(t)=-0.0340Y(t)+1120019109

189. IM(t)=1.5734Y(t)-24128501794

190. EX(t)=1.3835Y(t)-14013465887

191. D(t)=Y(t)

192. MD(t)=0.9542Y(t)+87424650r(t)-6428990541

193. MS(t)=1105432759t-2203684448050

194. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

195. Y(t)=497163403.26t-971955890343.12

196. r(t)=7.2182t-14524.9182

197. TI(t)=27798940.79t-50645775634.70

198. G(t)=-3699763.06t+10867214699.79

199. DI(t)=1041790001.00t-2069428440238.51

200. C(t)=793768746.73t-1584667150086.36

201. OR(t)=44712964.93t-84832760824.07

202. TR(t)=-16914024.14t+34186985189.37

203. TF(t)=527712573.60t-1063285564706.02

204. I(t)=-198511755.58t+407188808764.52

205. IM(t)=782237642.91t-1553405354627.74

206. EX(t)=687843818.09t-1358750118348.80

207. MD(t)=MS(t)=1105432759.05t-2203684448050.46

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2010 (97.98%) and the minimum in 2007 (79.57%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2013 (139.20%) and the minimum in 2006 (68.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.20-16.93%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2013 (127.31%) and the minimum in 2001 (75.30%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.42-21.01%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2014 (112.52%) and the minimum in 2006 (60.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.73-27.78%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2014 (1103.93%) and the minimum in 2015 (-2816.27%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between -73.95--65.01%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2004 (266.04%) and the minimum in 2005 (83.09%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.90-3.01%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (128.43%) and the minimum in 2005 (82.51%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2012 (111.80%) and the minimum in 2010 (75.08%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 89.70-103.54%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2012 (115.58%) and the minimum in 2009 (61.65%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 75.45-86.92%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2015 (131.97%) and the minimum in 2013 (77.60%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2015 (103.19%) and the minimum in 2006 (82.39%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2013 (103.31%) and the minimum in 2012 (-157.29%).

Figure 3.6.1.

Figure 3.6.2.

Figure 3.6.3.

Figure 3.6.4.

Figure 3.6.5.

Figure 3.6.6.

Figure 3.6.7.

Figure 3.6.8.

Figure 3.6.9.

Figure 3.6.10.

Figure 3.6.11.

Figure 3.6.12.

Figure 3.6.13.

3.7. Brunei Darussalam

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

208. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

209. C(t)=0.5489DI(t)-5343963982

210. G(t)=0.5489TI(t)-5343963982

211. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

212. OR(t)=0.5489Y(t)-5343963982

213. I(t)=1.6176Y(t)+28923072r(t)-18510777936

214. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

215. TF(t)=-0.9415Y(t)+13019711840

216. TR(t)=-0.9415Y(t)+13019711840

217. IM(t)=1.6834Y(t)-18869955352

218. EX(t)=-0.3398Y(t)+14040348160

219. D(t)=Y(t)

220. MD(t)=-2.8145Y(t)+43555823r(t)+46974518059

221. MS(t)=-140930494t+292289021677

222. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

223. Y(t)=117451857.56t-214391983905.34

224. r(t)=4.3539t-8221.4265

225. TI(t)=-46107133.06t+91837888288.73

226. G(t)=-25309486.16t+45068404091.13

227. DI(t)=117451857.56t-214391983905.34

228. C(t)=64472587.34t-123029679606.63

229. OR(t)=64472587.34t-123029679606.63

230. TR(t)=-110579720.41t+214867567895.37

231. TF(t)=-110579720.41t+214867567895.37

232. I(t)=315913333.25t-603091533339.95

233. IM(t)=197717929.59t-379776458307.98

234. EX(t)=-39906647.29t+86884366642.14

235. MD(t)=MS(t)=-140930494.33t+292289021676.53

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2013 (37.86%) and the minimum in 2002 (23.31%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2013 (20.07%) and the minimum in 2000 (5.55%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2011 (6.14%) and the minimum in 2016 (-10.34%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (150.70%) and the minimum in 2008 (68.86%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2006 (157.63%) and the minimum in 2015 (117.25%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.65-81.59%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2013 (39.89%) and the minimum in 2004 (13.64%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2013 (-13.01%) and the minimum in 2000 (-87.53%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2012 (65.46%) and the minimum in 2000 (58.36%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2009 (6.74%) and the minimum in 2000 (-3.75%).

Figure 3.7.1.

Figure 3.7.2.

Figure 3.7.3

Figure 3.7.4.

Figure 3.7.5.

Figure 3.7.6.

Figure 3.7.7.

Figure 3.7.8.

Figure 3.7.9.

Figure 3.7.10.

3.8. Bhutan

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

236. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

237. C(t)=0.6522DI(t)-166130788

238. G(t)=0.7420TI(t)+70983338

239. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

240. OR(t)=0.0276Y(t)+76286781

241. I(t)=0.4625Y(t)-21975367r(t)+264327051

242. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

243. TF(t)=0.0477Y(t)+25742382

244. TR(t)=0.1741Y(t)-81044984

245. IM(t)=0.5850Y(t)+5508297

246. EX(t)=0.3373Y(t)+55088908

247. D(t)=Y(t)

248. MD(t)=0.6928Y(t)-6607698r(t)-110502495

249. MS(t)=68883912t-137535582276

250. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

251. Y(t)=96667635.09t-192734074690.91

252. r(t)=-0.2893t+589.7782

253. TI(t)=19500126.30t-38883735587.12

254. G(t)=14468694.30t-28779952027.30

255. DI(t)=84450683.68t-168269364171.03

256. C(t)=55077426.85t-109908801804.13

257. OR(t)=2672115.50t-5251325793.61

258. TR(t)=16828010.80t-33632409793.51

259. TF(t)=4611059.38t-9167699273.63

260. I(t)=51068004.33t-101838954185.73

261. IM(t)=56554195.37t-112751160508.76

262. EX(t)=32607704.99t-64957527182.51

263. MD(t)=MS(t)=68883912.34t-137535582276.24

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (135.52%) and the minimum in 2006 (70.80%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 41.13-62.50%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2011 (114.17%) and the minimum in 2008 (91.67%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.98-23.14%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2009 (166.37%) and the minimum in 2003 (61.76%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 8.34-14.14%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2011 (127.42%) and the minimum in 2007 (57.04%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 48.30-63.97%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2000 (125.53%) and the minimum in 2004 (69.71%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.52-9.92%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (292.21%) and the minimum in 2007 (67.53%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 8.53-14.70%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (140.84%) and the minimum in 2006 (77.68%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2007 (146.29%) and the minimum in 2002 (62.86%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 37.75-57.13%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2010 (121.53%) and the minimum in 2001 (86.67%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 61.39-70.73%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2004 (154.97%) and the minimum in 2007 (11.20%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (114.56%) and the minimum in 2006 (91.17%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2013, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2015 (159.02%) and the minimum in 2012 (57.38%).

Figure 3.8.1.

Figure 3.8.2.

Figure 3.8.3.

Figure 3.8.4.

Figure 3.8.5.

Figure 3.8.6.

Figure 3.8.7.

Figure 3.8.8.

Figure 3.8.9.

Figure 3.8.10.

Figure 3.8.11.

Figure 3.8.12.

Figure 3.8.13.

3.9. Hong Kong SAR, China

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

264. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

265. C(t)=0.6544DI(t)-7973564009

266. G(t)=0.6544TI(t)-7973564009

267. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

268. OR(t)=0.6544Y(t)-7973564009

269. I(t)=0.2016Y(t)+47860576r(t)+6637354284

270. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

271. TF(t)=0.0311Y(t)-1662495605

272. TR(t)=0.0311Y(t)-1662495605

273. IM(t)=2.8710Y(t)-207851395794

274. EX(t)=2.9280Y(t)-211976963722

275. D(t)=Y(t)

276. MD(t)=5.7209Y(t)+4757421508r(t)-608454686664

277. MS(t)=43124056973t-85964450861556

278. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

279. Y(t)=-1426584682.94t+2888573123311.12

280. r(t)=10.7801t-21415.2449

281. TI(t)=-978011335.36t+1970658059199.32

282. G(t)=-640038603.50t+1281681460005.47

283. DI(t)=-1426584682.94t+2888573123311.12

284. C(t)=-933597838.02t+1882391343957.31

285. OR(t)=-933597838.02t+1882391343957.31

286. TR(t)=-44413497.34t+88266715242.01

287. TF(t)=-44413497.34t+88266715242.01

288. I(t)=228277304.47t-435840990566.27

289. IM(t)=-4095785675.46t+8085365657807.79

290. EX(t)=-4177011221.35t+8245706967722.40

291. MD(t)=MS(t)=43124056973.48t-85964450861555.60

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (69224.42%) and the minimum in 2000 (663.71%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 59.01-66.54%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2014 (258.58%) and the minimum in 2002 (185.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.63-26.63%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2005 (-132.43%) and the minimum in 2008 (-1430.97%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2014, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (115.75%) and the minimum in 2005 (93.33%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2001 (-194.97%) and the minimum in 2013 (-334.68%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2001 (-202.97%) and the minimum in 2013 (-338.88%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2000 (209.15%) and the minimum in 2006 (-755.17%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (2145.04%) and the minimum in 2000 (433.29%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2000 (9.21%) and the minimum in 2011 (0.40%).

Figure 3.9.1.

Figure 3.9.2.

Figure 3.9.3.

Figure 3.9.4.

Figure 3.9.5.

Figure 3.9.6.

Figure 3.9.7.

Figure 3.9.8.

Figure 3.9.9.

3.10. Indonesia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

292. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

293. C(t)=0.5620DI(t)+8670008790

294. G(t)=0.2814TI(t)+35518342437

295. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

296. OR(t)=0.0188Y(t)+10981711620

297. I(t)=0.3745Y(t)+1154433664r(t)-39599758593

298. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

299. TF(t)=1.2936Y(t)-1191143276319

300. TR(t)=0.1460Y(t)-38067989082

301. IM(t)=0.2470Y(t)-19096040206

302. EX(t)=0.2540Y(t)-13798864159

303. D(t)=Y(t)

304. MD(t)=0.2139Y(t)+1800336924r(t)+100985705256

305. MS(t)=7959940076t-15723367523662

306. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

307. Y(t)=-10257461156.88t+21689531802734.70

308. r(t)=5.6403t-11367.1768

309. TI(t)=-1690668645.70t+3547854031634.60

310. G(t)=-475805161.60t+1033991499883.49

311. DI(t)=-22028474387.15t+45426413387266.80

312. C(t)=-12379649992.54t+25537587185130.20

313. OR(t)=-192636602.26t+418314252029.05

314. TR(t)=-1498032043.43t+3129539779605.55

315. TF(t)=-13269045273.71t+26866421364137.70

316. I(t)=2669797367.50t-5039173196003.91

317. IM(t)=-2533330800.54t+5337664090280.71

318. EX(t)=-2605134170.77t+5494790404005.65

319. MD(t)=MS(t)=7959940075.96t-15723367523661.70

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (98.82%) and the minimum in 2010 (64.86%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2016 (125.67%) and the minimum in 2001 (37.77%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.51-9.84%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2008 (131.21%) and the minimum in 2015 (72.50%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 3.93-6.45%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2016 (103.01%) and the minimum in 2000 (45.62%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2016 (62.38%) and the minimum in 2009 (-304.93%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2016 (97.91%) and the minimum in 2001 (38.72%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (129.25%) and the minimum in 2010 (79.50%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2014 (91.69%) and the minimum in 2000 (33.73%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2014 (93.70%) and the minimum in 2000 (31.37%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2016 (136.59%) and the minimum in 2012 (30.33%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (102.69%) and the minimum in 2000 (38.60%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2016 (247.72%) and the minimum in 2015 (-431.94%).

Figure 3.10.1.

Figure 3.10.2.

Figure 3.10.3.

Figure 3.10.4.

Figure 3.10.5.

Figure 3.10.6.

Figure 3.10.7.

Figure 3.10.8.

Figure 3.10.9.

Figure 3.10.10.

Figure 3.10.11.

Figure 3.10.12.

Figure 3.10.13.

3.11. India

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

320. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

321. C(t)=0.5390DI(t)+47888398391

322. G(t)=0.7073TI(t)+24218633693

323. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

324. OR(t)=0.0074Y(t)+18593807874

325. I(t)=0.3693Y(t)-14053013127r(t)+53079019961

326. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

327. TF(t)=-0.0323Y(t)+145290869632

328. TR(t)=0.1221Y(t)-24234220625

329. IM(t)=0.2894Y(t)-77530647080

330. EX(t)=0.2667Y(t)-82193006389

331. D(t)=Y(t)

332. MD(t)=0.8775Y(t)-1065084846r(t)-276901926826

333. MS(t)=92063603350t-183846302489734

334. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

335. Y(t)=103964611467.37t-207281514748020.00

336. r(t)=-0.7838t+1577.4466

337. TI(t)=13465028911.16t-26851809983702.70

338. G(t)=9523289329.48t-18967018383481.10

339. DI(t)=87909610826.97t-175102012367876.00

340. C(t)=47385279812.57t-94336079108039.80

341. OR(t)=765825250.66t-1508285538358.58

342. TR(t)=12699203660.50t-25343524445344.10

343. TF(t)=-3355796979.90t+6835977934800.25

344. I(t)=49411754937.93t-98670503836660.00

345. IM(t)=30086544518.29t-60063178005954.20

346. EX(t)=27730831905.68t-55371091425793.40

347. MD(t)=MS(t)=92063603349.69t-183846302489734.00

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (116.21%) and the minimum in 2004 (92.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.80-63.11%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2000 (121.92%) and the minimum in 2006 (86.91%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 10.66-12.08%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2010 (150.99%) and the minimum in 2011 (73.28%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 1.76-3.00%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (139.78%) and the minimum in 2016 (86.81%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 26.44-39.70%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2013 (239.85%) and the minimum in 2016 (-43.12%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.30-11.85%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (130.61%) and the minimum in 2009 (88.30%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 8.19-12.27%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (149.20%) and the minimum in 2006 (89.32%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (118.26%) and the minimum in 2003 (84.35%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.34-24.87%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2012 (122.01%) and the minimum in 2003 (77.90%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.96-30.84%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2011 (242.56%) and the minimum in 2002 (13.17%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (123.94%) and the minimum in 2008 (93.62%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2012 (488.16%) and the minimum in 2013 (-1395.16%).

Figure 3.11.1.

Figure 3.11.2.

Figure 3.11.3.

Figure 3.11.4.

Figure 3.11.5.

Figure 3.11.6.

Figure 3.11.7.

Figure 3.11.8.

Figure 3.11.9.

Figure 3.11.10.

Figure 3.11.11.

Figure 3.11.12.

Figure 3.11.13.

3.12. Iran, Islamic Rep.

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

348. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

349. C(t)=0.4171DI(t)+14139446277

350. G(t)=0.2848TI(t)+17009078423

351. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

352. OR(t)=0.3037Y(t)-40515781415

353. I(t)=0.3835Y(t)-827333811r(t)-11906586731

354. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

355. TF(t)=-0.0870Y(t)+52090329234

356. TR(t)=0.0895Y(t)-11606967883

357. IM(t)=0.0407Y(t)+54615369940

358. EX(t)=0.1059Y(t)+63048762379

359. D(t)=Y(t)

360. MD(t)=1.5214Y(t)+4038368950r(t)-433691710126

361. MS(t)=17516229482t-34944557086723

362. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

363. Y(t)=16632085534.62t-32951516525033.70

364. r(t)=-1.9284t+3868.1385

365. TI(t)=6540902376.18t-13010969809612.70

366. G(t)=1862616116.16t-3688051884191.66

367. DI(t)=13695985202.84t-27070812190501.50

368. C(t)=5712429593.23t-11276768537300.80

369. OR(t)=5051915460.02t-10049379397299.50

370. TR(t)=1488986916.16t-2961590412313.16

371. TF(t)=-1447113415.62t+2919113922219.09

372. I(t)=7973102115.25t-15847630236886.90

373. IM(t)=677635650.82t-1287917549311.39

374. EX(t)=1761573360.81t-3426983415965.67

375. MD(t)=MS(t)=17516229482.13t-34944557086723.00

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (114.91%) and the minimum in 2016 (89.23%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 37.79-47.20%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2006 (117.21%) and the minimum in 2001 (95.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.95-11.64%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2005 (121.86%) and the minimum in 2009 (83.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.43-21.10%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2010 (111.07%) and the minimum in 2015 (68.08%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 35.74-40.66%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2009 (284.48%) and the minimum in 2011 (0.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 4.30-7.31%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2009 (113.74%) and the minimum in 2002 (88.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 4.55-7.34%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (132.74%) and the minimum in 2013 (80.23%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (117.10%) and the minimum in 2013 (73.62%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.54-25.35%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (132.97%) and the minimum in 2015 (55.68%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.79-20.91%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2016 (218.09%) and the minimum in 2008 (47.52%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2003 (125.40%) and the minimum in 2011 (96.19%). The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2006 (1694.74%) and the minimum in 2004 (-169.85%).

Figure 3.12.1

Figure 3.12.2.

Figure 3.12.3.

Figure 3.12.4.

Figure 3.12.5.

Figure 3.12.6.

Figure 3.12.7.

Figure 3.12.8.

Figure 3.12.9.

Figure 3.12.10.

Figure 3.12.11.

Figure 3.12.12.

Figure 3.12.13.

3.13. Israel

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

376. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

377. C(t)=0.5501DI(t)+5974310756

378. G(t)=0.6811TI(t)+1497866027

379. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

380. OR(t)=0.0533Y(t)+10008410548

381. I(t)=0.3181Y(t)+783982941r(t)-32714041187

382. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

383. TF(t)=0.0162Y(t)+41068809590

384. TR(t)=0.1643Y(t)+16661353406

385. IM(t)=0.3300Y(t)+1743260572

386. EX(t)=0.3713Y(t)-7778179166

387. D(t)=Y(t)

388. MD(t)=1.5137Y(t)+341345324r(t)-192518015214

389. MS(t)=5395444567t-10649056685617

390. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

391. Y(t)=3540054020.55t-6861640409473.28

392. r(t)=0.1075t-204.3658

393. TI(t)=770393282.19t-1466573459338.37

394. G(t)=524737965.29t-997429293370.76

395. DI(t)=3015873645.70t-5821220988201.34

396. C(t)=1658964459.37t-3196148809801.44

397. OR(t)=188804582.44t-355949042325.83

398. TR(t)=581588699.75t-1110624417012.54

399. TF(t)=57408324.90t-70204995740.60

400. I(t)=1210461059.78t-2375763148449.72

401. IM(t)=1168389751.15t-2262931313306.35

402. EX(t)=1314280287.26t-2555230471157.71

403. MD(t)=MS(t)=5395444566.98t-10649056685616.70

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (112.04%) and the minimum in 2000 (78.45%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (107.44%) and the minimum in 2000 (84.12%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2015 (102.45%) and the minimum in 2001 (87.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2016 (94.38%) and the minimum in 2014 (87.96%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (136.71%) and the minimum in 2016 (-7.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (105.49%) and the minimum in 2003 (80.73%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (106.96%) and the minimum in 2014 (98.70%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2011 (101.49%) and the minimum in 2002 (65.37%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (106.76%) and the minimum in 2003 (73.81%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2012, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2003 (4258.17%) and the minimum in 2004 (-1196.27%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2002 (127.60%) and the minimum in 2000 (122.83%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2002 (24.04%) and the minimum in 2001 (10.92%).

Figure 3.13.1.

Figure 3.13.2.

Figure 3.13.3.

Figure 3.13.4.

Figure 3.13.5.

Figure 3.13.6.

Figure 3.13.7.

Figure 3.13.8.

Figure 3.13.9.

Figure 3.13.10.

Figure 3.13.11.

3.14. Japan

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

404. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

405. C(t)=0.4725DI(t)+494018798795

406. G(t)=0.5619TI(t)+723610611520

407. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

408. OR(t)=0.0236Y(t)-68115466721

409. I(t)=-0.0810Y(t)-12515067097r(t)+1864659250645

410. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

411. TF(t)=0.0445Y(t)+403296835146

412. TR(t)=0.2357Y(t)-779041515605

413. IM(t)=0.4984Y(t)-2045602461288

414. EX(t)=0.6808Y(t)-3095531891461

415. D(t)=Y(t)

416. MD(t)=1.5252Y(t)-330338485620r(t)+3838581928199

417. MS(t)=138952071671t-267272545959730

418. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

419. Y(t)=12285138387.00t-19033921620761.40

420. r(t)=-0.3639t+732.8245

421. TI(t)=3184853917.39t-5781595482533.86

422. G(t)=1789669189.80t-2525249013243.56

423. DI(t)=9936442802.06t-14212642765923.50

424. C(t)=4695350007.16t-6221999563323.91

425. OR(t)=289363919.05t-516440099419.93

426. TR(t)=2895489998.34t-5265155383113.93

427. TF(t)=546794413.40t-443876528275.99

428. I(t)=3559643778.65t-5765473528959.96

429. IM(t)=6123265776.66t-11532655613194.20

430. EX(t)=8363741188.05t-16053855128428.20

431. MD(t)=MS(t)=138952071671.09t-267272545959730.00

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2013 (105.94%) and the minimum in 2000 (94.89%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 56.11-58.87%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (109.89%) and the minimum in 2000 (88.35%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.49-19.97%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2007 (125.26%) and the minimum in 2003 (87.73%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 1.18-1.38%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (110.72%) and the minimum in 2009 (85.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.58-28.02%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (138.40%) and the minimum in 2016 (-0.68%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 11.53-15.21%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (120.30%) and the minimum in 2009 (82.96%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 9.90-11.47%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (116.53%) and the minimum in 2010 (93.54%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (121.40%) and the minimum in 2001 (74.00%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 12.94-16.21%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2014 (120.50%) and the minimum in 2000 (88.17%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.46-16.29%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2001 (344.48%) and the minimum in 2016 (-829.47%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (105.49%) and the minimum in 2000 (96.61%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2013 (614.06%) and the minimum in 2016 (-94.01%).

Figure 3.14.1.

Figure 3.14.2.

Figure 3.14.3.

Figure 3.14.4.

Figure 3.14.5.

Figure 3.14.6.

Figure 3.14.7.

Figure 3.14.8.

Figure 3.14.9.

Figure 3.14.10.

Figure 3.14.11.

Figure 3.14.12.

Figure 3.14.13.

3.15. Kazakhstan

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

432. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

433. C(t)=0.6714DI(t)-14803196990

434. G(t)=0.2417TI(t)+10498874950

435. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

436. OR(t)=0.0852Y(t)-7247079417

437. I(t)=-7247079417.0338Y(t)+0r(t)

438. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

439. TF(t)=-0.3593Y(t)+37123538993

440. TR(t)=0.1559Y(t)-8040960447

441. IM(t)=0.2198Y(t)+19868580947

442. EX(t)=0.1608Y(t)+44948988507

443. D(t)=Y(t)

444. MD(t)=-8040960446.6148Y(t)+0r(t)

445. MS(t)=4117372009t-8226045160815

446. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

447. Y(t)=0.79t-1559.69

448. r(t)=67123872634.0279t-133248435382071.0000

449. TI(t)=0.19t-15288040239.59

450. G(t)=0.05t+6803182182.02

451. DI(t)=0.38t+45164498683.32

452. C(t)=0.26t+15522074610.99

453. OR(t)=0.07t-7247079549.89

454. TR(t)=0.12t-8040960689.70

455. TF(t)=-0.28t+37123539553.30

456. I(t)=0.53t-47405666005.71

457. IM(t)=0.17t+19868580603.70

458. EX(t)=0.13t+44948988256.72

459. MD(t)=MS(t)=4117372009.11t-8226045160815.45

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2015 (645.87%) and the minimum in 2000 (229.55%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2012 (322.42%) and the minimum in 2000 (102.21%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2000 (-10.19%) and the minimum in 2012 (-211.81%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2004 (24.38%) and the minimum in 2016 (-456.91%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (-84.98%) and the minimum in 2011 (-361.03%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2007 (166.51%) and the minimum in 2001 (113.12%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2013 (321.01%) and the minimum in 2003 (169.37%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2004 (103.02%) and the minimum in 2015 (30.92%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

Figure 3.15.1.

Figure 3.15.2.

Figure 3.15.3.

Figure 3.15.4

Figure 3.15.5

Figure 3.15.6

Figure 3.15.7

Figure 3.15.8

Figure 3.15.9

3.16. Cambodia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

460. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

461. C(t)=0.8307DI(t)+250373313

462. G(t)=0.2787TI(t)+212305765

463. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

464. OR(t)=0.0192Y(t)-23764529

465. I(t)=-23764528.6204Y(t)+0r(t)

466. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

467. TF(t)=0.1197Y(t)-667072325

468. TR(t)=0.1918Y(t)-887663099

469. IM(t)=0.9973Y(t)-3790602785

470. EX(t)=0.9153Y(t)-3540121438

471. D(t)=Y(t)

472. MD(t)=-887663099.4457Y(t)+0r(t)

473. MS(t)=672022012t-1345276685150

474. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

475. Y(t)=-1.03t+2057.56

476. r(t)=-1275832795.0274t+2508453759992.2500

477. TI(t)=-0.22t-911427193.83

478. G(t)=-0.06t-41735212.55

479. DI(t)=-0.96t+220592683.67

480. C(t)=-0.80t+433615669.32

481. OR(t)=-0.02t-23764489.04

482. TR(t)=-0.20t-887662704.79

483. TF(t)=-0.12t-667072078.67

484. I(t)=-0.26t-642359577.73

485. IM(t)=-1.03t-3790600732.86

486. EX(t)=-0.95t-3540119554.35

487. MD(t)=MS(t)=672022012.34t-1345276685149.90

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (3098.27%) and the minimum in 2000 (1046.81%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2006 (-742.84%) and the minimum in 2016 (-2203.21%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2003 (-507.95%) and the minimum in 2016 (-1506.04%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2001 (27.30%) and the minimum in 2016 (-223.34%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2002 (-55.26%) and the minimum in 2016 (-292.43%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (-48.93%) and the minimum in 2016 (-350.10%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2000 (-54.07%) and the minimum in 2016 (-356.97%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2001 (-90.64%) and the minimum in 2016 (-454.14%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in (0.00%) and the minimum in (0.00%).

Figure 3.16.1.

Figure 3.16.2.

Figure 3.16.3.

Figure 3.16.4.

Figure 3.16.5.

Figure 3.16.6.

Figure 3.16.7.

Figure 3.16.8.

Figure 3.16.9.

3.17. Korea, Rep.

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

488. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

489. C(t)=0.3598DI(t)+155972901964

490. G(t)=0.4609TI(t)+33123563343

491. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

492. OR(t)=0.2058Y(t)-118249068206

493. I(t)=0.2543Y(t)-145132992r(t)+69981622924

494. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

495. TF(t)=0.0704Y(t)+62262389648

496. TR(t)=0.1458Y(t)-2961739019

497. IM(t)=0.7687Y(t)-328791218697

498. EX(t)=0.9641Y(t)-503130867407

499. D(t)=Y(t)

500. MD(t)=2.2287Y(t)-30718078124r(t)-1268086462846

501. MS(t)=88914539140t-177665725834638

502. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

503. Y(t)=6358068730.49t-11821572222473.50

504. r(t)=-2.4332t+4884.7887

505. TI(t)=2234912037.67t-4276588042683.21

506. G(t)=1030045448.16t-1937907051179.11

507. DI(t)=5879254620.08t-10866087886305.70

508. C(t)=2115493417.92t-3753899843382.67

509. OR(t)=1308176139.93t-2550544057989.41

510. TR(t)=926735897.74t-1726043984693.79

511. TF(t)=447921787.33t-770559648525.97

512. I(t)=1969764735.20t-3644749536276.53

513. IM(t)=4887248771.43t-9415664413952.71

514. EX(t)=6130013900.65t-11900680205588.00

515. MD(t)=MS(t)=88914539140.34t-177665725834638.00

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (122.79%) and the minimum in 2000 (84.04%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 48.09-52.64%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (135.15%) and the minimum in 2000 (69.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.78-15.05%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2013 (189.05%) and the minimum in 2000 (70.85%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 7.13-13.15%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2016 (129.71%) and the minimum in 2000 (84.24%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 29.62-34.01%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2012 (139.64%) and the minimum in 2016 (1.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.91-15.72%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (125.22%) and the minimum in 2001 (80.49%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.93-15.48%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (253.54%) and the minimum in 2009 (68.00%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2014 (156.42%) and the minimum in 2001 (57.24%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 42.30-57.10%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (150.08%) and the minimum in 2001 (63.01%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 42.06-51.03%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2013 (477.53%) and the minimum in 2000 (-4629.30%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (130.95%) and the minimum in 2000 (79.37%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2007 (319.26%) and the minimum in 2008 (-351.89%).

Figure 3.17.1.

Figure 3.17.2.

Figure 3.17.3.

Figure 3.17.4.

Figure 3.17.5.

Figure 3.17.6.

Figure 3.17.7.

Figure 3.17.8.

Figure 3.17.9.

Figure 3.17.10.

Figure 3.17.11.

Figure 3.17.12.

Figure 3.17.13.

Kuwait

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

516. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

517. C(t)=0.3554DI(t)-12215937448

518. G(t)=-0.0344TI(t)+26055769006

519. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

520. OR(t)=0.6504Y(t)-11646253724

521. I(t)=0.1462Y(t)+119321914r(t)+3037313823

522. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

523. TF(t)=1.2282Y(t)-193723330186

524. TR(t)=0.0055Y(t)+522757006

525. IM(t)=0.5317Y(t)-28105583018

526. EX(t)=0.5949Y(t)+10431631639

527. D(t)=Y(t)

528. MD(t)=0.6638Y(t)+965738458r(t)+228245862

529. MS(t)=4664310921t-9286616941336

530. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

531. Y(t)=5475006371.06t-11026739500220.70

532. r(t)=1.0667t-2037.3412

533. TI(t)=3591359657.48t-7244172138261.09

534. G(t)=-123688596.66t+275549434686.20

535. DI(t)=12169049777.72t-24702882748050.70

536. C(t)=4324904180.01t-8791668960218.10

537. OR(t)=3561209618.59t-7183972294734.37

538. TR(t)=30150038.89t-60199843526.72

539. TF(t)=6724193445.56t-13736343091356.70

540. I(t)=927478268.43t-1851678925953.52

541. IM(t)=2910897636.90t-5890694186301.26

542. EX(t)=3257210156.18t-6549635235036.54

543. MD(t)=MS(t)=4664310920.55t-9286616941336.33

From the relationships (16)-(28) we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2010 (-33.82%) and the minimum in 2016 (-61.84%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2013 (96.13%) and the minimum in 2010 (73.40%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2001 (-61.16%) and the minimum in 2015 (-631.58%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2010 (162.37%) and the minimum in 2012 (145.23%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.51-19.95%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2008 (53.85%) and the minimum in 2014 (-7.74%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2003 (620.70%) and the minimum in 2012 (209.17%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.66-0.96%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2016 (129.87%) and the minimum in 2012 (81.27%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2011 (14311.68%) and the minimum in 2010 (-2911.81%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 65.12-70.18%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2010 (-88.05%) and the minimum in 2016 (-219.05%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2012 (139.27%) and the minimum in 2015 (110.59%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2015 (2555.67%) and the minimum in 2014 (-178885.21%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2015 (36.48%) and the minimum in 2011 (-9.53%).

Figure 3.18.1.

Figure 3.18.2.

Figure 3.18.3.

Figure 3.18.4.

Figure 3.18.5.

Figure 3.18.6.

Figure 3.18.7.

Figure 3.18.8.

Figure 3.18.9.

Figure 3.18.10.

Figure 3.18.11.

3.19. Lebanon

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

544. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

545. C(t)=0.8050DI(t)+3182910004

546. G(t)=0.2392TI(t)+3148858765

547. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

548. OR(t)=0.0411Y(t)+235281825

549. I(t)=0.3413Y(t)+9819108r(t)-3747188170

550. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

551. TF(t)=0.1793Y(t)-1434309692

552. TR(t)=0.1552Y(t)-173224473

553. IM(t)=0.6267Y(t)-1563591573

554. EX(t)=0.3737Y(t)-1920417382

555. D(t)=Y(t)

556. MD(t)=3.1992Y(t)+380582480r(t)-33186703477

557. MS(t)=4723573081t-9410925019789

558. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations (1)-(15) we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

559. Y(t)=992222142.37t-1959871219785.00

560. r(t)=4.0707t-8165.6596

561. TI(t)=194757783.98t-384630199910.50

562. G(t)=46576918.02t-88836626608.72

563. DI(t)=1016180449.15t-2008455574580.41

564. C(t)=818013377.64t-1613600339249.97

565. OR(t)=40801593.61t-80357425808.91

566. TR(t)=153956190.38t-304272774101.60

567. TF(t)=177914497.15t-352857128897.01

568. I(t)=378656993.34t-752910910665.60

569. IM(t)=621831895.95t-1229827288149.32

570. EX(t)=370806749.32t-734350631410.02

571. MD(t)=MS(t)=4723573080.55t-9410925019788.80