Green Energy Transformation in Post-War Karabakh: Pathways Toward Sustainable Reconstruction and Regional Development

Abstract

Post-war Karabakh faces the dual challenge of large-scale infrastructure reconstruction and the creation of a resilient, low-carbon energy system capable of supporting long-term socioeconomic recovery. Extensive damage to energy facilities and grid networks has resulted in supply insecurity and limited regional productivity. This paper aims to evaluate the potential for green energy transformation in Karabakh and to identify sustainable pathways for integrating renewable energy into the reconstruction process. Methodologically, the study adopts an adaptive, data-driven approach based on secondary statistical sources, policy analysis, and comparative evidence from post-conflict regions. A simplified capacity estimation model is applied to assess renewable energy potential, where total generation is calculated as the sum of solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal outputs: . Resource-specific formulations are used to estimate installed capacity and annual generation based on available land, flow rates, and resource intensity. The results indicate substantial multi-source potential that can enhance energy security, reduce emissions, and stimulate sustainable regional development. The study offers practical planning recommendations for green reconstruction in post-war territories.