Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - 1

Authors

  • Collective Authors

Abstract

Demand and supply side assessment are the two foremost important components of energy
management and planning. Unfortunately, for the past twenty years Pakistan is confronting extremely
serious issues with energy management such as electricity followed by institutional incompetence and
lack of policy response. This is due to the fact that the country neither has long term energy plans nor
short-term solutions to deal with energy crisis. This study outlines overall consumption of electricity
and forecasting its various components. The interminable crisis of electricity affects all sectors of
economy. The study deals with this particular aspect and applies Holt-winter and ARIMA models for
the forecasting. The outcomes of both the models suggest that ARIMA model is more reliable for
forecasting as compared to Holt-winter model. Estimated results affirm the tendency of increasing
demand in all the indices which show an alarming position in future. Household sector will have the
highest energy demand in 2030, followed by industrial sector. Thus, due to the ever increasing demand
of electricity energy, government should initiate different renewable sources of power production such
as hydal and solar energy to overcome the shortfall of electricity energy as well as sustainability in
economy.

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Published

2021-06-25

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Articles