Fiscal Structure and Tax Revenue Dynamics in Morocco: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis

Authors

Keywords:

fiscal resilience; cyclical dynamics; revenue volatility; fiscal shocks; tax composition

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of tax revenues and fiscal structure in Morocco over the period 2000–2024, with a particular focus on the temporal behavior of major tax components and their adjustment to revenue fluctuations. Building on the literature on fiscal dynamics in emerging economies, the study emphasizes the role of tax composition in shaping revenue stability. The empirical analysis relies on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Unit root tests are first conducted to determine the stochastic properties of the series, followed by model identification, estimation, and diagnostic validation. The results indicate that all tax series are integrated of order one, suggesting persistent shocks and long-lasting effects. The findings also reveal heterogeneous dynamic patterns across tax instruments: personal income tax is sensitive to short-term fluctuations, corporate income tax exhibits dynamics consistent with a highly cyclical tax base, while value added tax displays greater stability due to its broader base. These results highlight the central role of fiscal structure in shaping revenue resilience. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that fiscal performance depends not only on the level of taxation, but also on the stochastic behavior and dynamic properties of its components.

Author Biographies

  • Mounir Atlassi, FSJES-Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco

    Mounir Atlassi is a PhD student in Applied Economics at Mohammed V University in Rabat (FSJES Salé) and a senior official in the Moroccan tax administration, specializing in international taxation. His research focuses on optimal taxation, tax pressure, governance, and base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) practices. He employs advanced econometric techniques (ARDL-ECM, ARIMA, and panel data models) applied to the Moroccan context. Alongside his academic work, he is actively involved in tax auditing and contributes to tax system modernization projects. He is also a certified trainer in public finance and taxation. His work adopts an empirical approach to the analysis of fiscal policies in emerging economies.

  • Mohamed Karim, FSJES-Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco

    Mohamed Karim is a Professor of Economics at Mohammed V University in Rabat (FSJES Salé). His research focuses on macroeconomics, public finance, and international economics, with particular emphasis on the Moroccan economy. He has published extensively in international academic journals on topics such as economic growth, fiscal policy, and taxation. His work employs a range of econometric approaches, including ARDL, VECM, and computable general equilibrium models. He is also interested in issues related to investment, energy, and governance. His contributions are grounded in an empirical analysis of economic policies in developing countries.

  • Ilham Dkhissi, BEAR Lab, Rabat Business School, International University of Rabat, Morocco

    Ilham Dkhissi is a Professor of Economics and Quantitative Methods at Rabat Business School, International University of Rabat. She is a member of the ESIRAMED research group (“Social Economy, Responsible Investment, Insurance”), a Franco-Maghreb research network. Her research primarily focuses on macroeconomics, public policies, and the analysis of economic dynamics in developing countries. She has a particular interest in growth, governance, and public finance issues. Her work relies on econometric tools applied to macroeconomic data analysis. She has contributed to several academic studies addressing contemporary economic challenges, with a specific focus on welfare, living standards, and poverty among older populations in Maghreb countries. Her research adopts an empirical approach aimed at supporting economic policy decision-making.

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Published

2026-04-30

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 2 (2026)

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Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Mounir Atlassi, Mohamed Karim, Ilham Dkhissi

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How to Cite

Fiscal Structure and Tax Revenue Dynamics in Morocco: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis. (2026). Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 22(2), 167-183. https://dj.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/AUDOE/article/view/4008