Agricultural Taxation and Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Morocco

Authors

Keywords:

Agricultural taxation, Computable general equilibrium, Fiscal sustainability, Climate vulnerability, Morocco

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic, distributive, and fiscal implications of extending taxation to Morocco’s still-exempt agricultural segment within the post-2014 agricultural tax reform framework. Covering the period 2025–2035, the study employs a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on a Social Accounting Matrix constructed from High Commission for Planning (HCP) 2024 data. The model incorporates agricultural dualism, fiscal recycling through the Agricultural Development Fund (FDA), capital accumulation, and climate-related productivity shocks. The results show that abrupt agricultural taxation reduces GDP, agricultural value added, productive investment, and rural welfare. Conversely, progressive and differentiated taxation limits these adverse effects while preserving macroeconomic stability. The findings indicate that the remaining exempt agricultural segment offers limited short-term revenue potential, making fiscal equity and tax-base broadening the main objectives of reform. The study concludes that sustainable agricultural taxation requires gradual implementation, effective FDA recycling, and climate-resilient agricultural investment.

Author Biographies

  • Mounir Atlassi, FSJES-Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco

    Mounir Atlassi is a PhD Candidate in Applied Economics at Mohammed V University in Rabat (FSJES Salé) and a senior official in the Moroccan tax administration, specializing in international taxation. His research focuses on optimal taxation, tax pressure, governance, and base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) practices. He employs advanced econometric techniques (ARDL-ECM, ARIMA, and panel data models) applied to the Moroccan context. Alongside his academic work, he is actively involved in tax auditing and contributes to tax system modernization projects. He is also a certified trainer in public finance and taxation. His work adopts an empirical approach to the analysis of fiscal policies in emerging economies.

  • Mohamed Karim, FSJES-Salé, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco

    Mohamed Karim is a Professor of Economics at Mohammed V University in Rabat (FSJES Salé). His research focuses on macroeconomics, public finance, and international economics, with particular emphasis on the Moroccan economy. He has published extensively in international academic journals on topics such as economic growth, fiscal policy, and taxation. His work employs a range of econometric approaches, including ARDL, VECM, and computable general equilibrium models. He is also interested in issues related to investment, energy, and governance. His contributions are grounded in an empirical analysis of economic policies in developing countries.

  • Ilham Dkhissi, BEAR Lab, Rabat Business School, International University of Rabat, Morocco

    Ilham Dkhissi is a Professor of Economics and Quantitative Methods at Rabat Business School, International University of Rabat. She is a member of the ESIRAMED research group (“Social Economy, Responsible Investment, Insurance”), a Franco-Maghreb research network. Her research primarily focuses on macroeconomics, public policies, and the analysis of economic dynamics in developing countries. She has a particular interest in growth, governance, and public finance issues. Her work relies on econometric tools applied to macroeconomic data analysis. She has contributed to several academic studies addressing contemporary economic challenges, with a specific focus on welfare, living standards, and poverty among older populations in Maghreb countries. Her research adopts an empirical approach aimed at supporting economic policy decision-making.

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Published

2026-08-28

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Vol. 22 No. 4 (2026)

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Copyright (c) 2026 Mounir Atlassi, Mohamed Karim, Ilham Dkhissi

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How to Cite

Agricultural Taxation and Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Morocco. (2026). Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 22(4), 31-71. https://dj.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/AUDOE/article/view/4065